Dr Graham Turner

Dr Graham Turner is an applied physicist whose work involved whole-of-system analysis on the long-term physical sustainability of the environment and economy.  With a background in applied physics, Graham developed and applied the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework to create ‘what if’ scenarios that quantify sustainability challenges and explore potential solutions. At the global level, Graham’s analysis examined the Limits to Growth, demonstrating that the infamous modelling of the 1970s is, somewhat alarmingly, on track.

Graham is an Honorary Senior Fellow with the Melbourne Sustainable Society Institute at the University of Melbourne, and previously a principal research fellow from 2013 to 2015. Here he worked in collaboration with the Victorian Eco-Innovation Lab (VEIL) at the University. His sustainability research began when joining CSIRO in 2000, and continued with CSIRO until 2013.

Prior to that Graham was a policy analyst at the Australian Defence Force Headquarters in Canberra, from 1996 to 2000.

Previously, his physics research involved vacuum glazings at the University of Sydney (1992-1996) for use as ultra-insulating windows in buildings; and experimental and simulation research on industrial plasma physics at IBM’s T.J. Watson laboratory in NY, USA (1990-1992), and at the University of Sydney. Graham's PhD was on magnetron sputtering research at the University of Sydney (1986-1990).

Recent publications

Candy, S., Turner, G., Sheridan, J. & Carey, R. 2018, 'Quantifying Melbourne’s ‘Foodprint’: A scenario modelling methodology to determine the environmental impact of feeding a city', Econ Agro Alimentare.

Turner, G.M., Larsen, K., Candy, S., Ogilvy, S., Ananthapavan, J., Moodie, M., James, S., Friel, S., Ryan, C. J. & Lawrence, M. A. 2017, 'Squandering Australia's Food Security— the Environmental and Economic Costs of our Unhealthy Diet and the Policy Path We're On', Journal of Cleaner Production.

Turner, G.M., Dunlop, M., Candy, S. 2016, The impacts of expansion and degradation on Australian cropping yields—an integrated historical perspective', Agricultural Systems 143, 22-37.

Turner, K.G., Anderson, S., Gonzales-Chang, M., Costanza, R., Courville, S., Dalgaard, T., Dominati, E., Kubiszewski, I., Ogilvy, S., Porfirio, L., Ratna, N., Sandhu, H., Sutton, P.C., Svenning, J.-C., Turner, G.M., Varennes, Y.-D., Voinov, A., Wratten, S. 2016, 'A review of methods, data, and models to assess changes in the value of ecosystem services from land degradation and restoration', Ecological Modelling, vol. 319, 190-207.

Candy, S., Biggs, C., Larsen, K., Turner, G. 2015, 'Modelling food system resilience: a scenario-based simulation modelling approach to explore future shocks and adaptations in the Australian food system', Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences, vol. 5, 712-731.

Turner, G.M., Elliston, B., Diesendorf, M. 2013, 'Impacts on the Biophysical Economy and Environment of a Transition to 100% Renewable Electricity in Australia', Energy Policy, vol. 54, 288-299.

Kenway, S., Turner, G.M., Cook, S., Baynes, T.M. 2014, 'Water and Energy Futures for Melbourne:  implications of land use, water use, and water supply strategy', Journal of Water and Climate Change, vol. 5, 163-175.

Turner, G. M. 2012, Limits to Growth, Berkshire Encyclopedia of Sustainability: Measurements, Indicators, and Research Methods for Sustainability, Great Barrington, Massachusetts, USA, Berkshire Publishing. 6.

Turner, G.M., Elliston, B., Diesendorf, M. 2013, 'Impacts on the Biophysical Economy and Environment of a Transition to 100% Renewable Electricity in Australia', Energy Policy, vol. 54, 288-299.

Turner, G.M. 2013, 'The Limits to Growth Model Is More than a Mathematical Exercise', GAiA, vol. 22, 18-19.

Turner, G. M. 2012, 'On the cusp of global collapse? Updated comparison of the Limits to Growth with historical data', GAiA - Ecological Perspectives for Science and Society, vol. 21, no. 2, 116-124.

Turner G.M.West, J., 2011, 'Modelling the electricity generation system and environmental implications in an integrated long-term planning framework', Energy Policy, doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2011.10.053.

Turner, G.M. 2011, 'Energy Shocks and Emerging Alternative Technologies', Australian Journal of International Affairs, DOI:10.1080/10357718.2011.570248

Turner G.M., Hoffman R.B., McInnis B.C., Poldy F., Foran B., 2011, 'A tool for strategic biophysical assessment of a national economy - The Australian stocks and flows framework', Environmental Modelling & Software, vol. 26, no. 9: 1134-1149.

Baynes, T. M., Turner, G. M. and West, J. 2011, 'Historical Calibration of a Water Account System', Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, vol. 137, no. 1: 41-50. doi: 10.1061/_ASCE_WR.1943-5452.0000090

Turner G.M., Baynes T.M., 2010, 'Soft-coupling of national biophysical and economic models for improved understanding of feedbacks', Environmental Policy and Governance, vol. 20, 270–282.

Turner G.M., Baynes T.M., McInnis B.C., 2010, 'A Water Accounting System for Strategic Water Management', Water Resources Management, vol. 24, no. 3: 513-543. 10.1007/s11269-009-9457-7: 10.1007/s11269-009-9457-7.

Schandl, H. and Turner, G. M. 2009, 'The Dematerialization Potential of the Australian Economy', Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 13, no. 6: 863-880.

Turner, G. M. 2008, 'A comparison of The Limits to Growth with 30 years of reality' Global Environmental Change, vol. 18, 397-411.

Schandl, H., Poldy, F., Turner, G. M., Measham, T. G., Walker , D. and Eisenmenger, N. 2008, 'Australia's Resource Use Trajectories', Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 12, (5; Special Issue on Material Use across World Regions: Inevitable Pasts and Possible Futures): 669-685.

Lennox, J. A., Turner, G., Hoffman, R. B. and McInnis, B. C. 2005, 'Modelling Australian basic industries in the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework' Journal of Industrial Ecology, vol. 8, 101-120.